Protein Market Pressures and Strategic Opportunities for Operators: Discover strategies operators are using to stay ahead

As operators continue to navigate a volatile protein landscape, one category stands out as being under the greatest pressure: beef. With persistent supply constraints and sustained cost inflation, understanding current market dynamics, and how to respond, remains critical.

We asked Kira Yeung, Director of Procurement at Foodbuy Canada, Protein, to provide some insight on the current market conditions.

Beef remains under significant pressure

Beef is experiencing the most pressure across all protein categories, with little relief expected in the near term. Ongoing supply constraints in North America that are driven by a reduced cattle herd, elevated feed costs, and unfavourable weather all continue to drive prices upward.

“Beef is under the most pressure right now, and we do not predict any relief in the next two years,” says Kira Yeung. “The challenge is largely driven by a lack of available cattle supply across North America, combined with higher input costs and weather impacts.”

Tight cattle inventories

Both the USDA and supplier partners indicate that tight cattle inventories are expected to persist, with limited cow slaughter projected through at least 2028. As a result, operators should plan for continued upward cost pressure.

From a menu perspective, operators should evaluate shifting away from 100% beef or incorporating blended proteins, such as pork or chicken, to help manage costs while maintaining menu appeal.

Chicken: Always a reliable trade-down option

Compared to beef, chicken remains relatively stable, making it a practical and effective trade-down option. Its versatility and consistent pricing make it a strong choice for operators looking to protect margins. Chicken gives operators incredible flexibility across menus while aligning with how consumers are choosing to eat today. It works across a wide range of dietary preferences and cultural cuisines, and it resonates with those focused on health, value, and sustainability.

In that sense, chicken is no longer just a trade-down. It is often a deliberate choice because it delivers on value, versatility, and relevance.

“Chicken continues to be a very viable alternative to beef, especially as operators look to manage rising costs,” says Yeung. “We’re seeing a clear shift in products like burgers, sausages, and ground applications, where proteins are being reformulated using chicken or pork.”

Breast meat continues to see strong and consistent demand. It remains a core item across most menus and a familiar choice for consumers. At the same time, we have seen a meaningful increase in demand for dark meat, especially thighs, over the past few years. Chefs are leaning into the flavour, versatility, and strong value that thighs offer.

This shift is particularly evident in centre of plate (COP) items, where small changes can have a meaningful impact on overall food costs without sacrificing guest satisfaction.

Pork: Seasonal value and operational efficiency

Pork offers favourable pricing dynamics, especially as the industry moves into grilling season. Unlike beef, pork markets are not facing the same level of supply instability or inflationary pressure, creating opportunities for operators to drive value.

“As we head into grilling season, pork is a great way to achieve cost savings,” Yeung notes. “The raw material market is much more stable compared to beef, without the same inflationary pressures.”

In addition to menu opportunities, pork is also driving operational efficiencies through value-added formats. One emerging trend is the shift from raw layout bacon to par-fried bacon.

While Par-fried bacon has a higher upfront cost, the labour and time savings can be significant. It offers reduced prep, faster cook times, and less waste making it a more economical option overall.

These formats not only improve efficiency but also help operators optimize labour and freezer space, both critical considerations in today’s environment.

Seafood: Adapting to supply constraints

Seafood markets, particularly cod and haddock, are facing increasing pressure due to a combination of strong demand and constrained supply.

“We’ve seen significant price increases in cod and haddock, driven by quota cuts and restricted supply” says Yeung. “At the same time, demand remains very strong, which continues to tighten the market.”

As pricing for these species reaches record highs, operators are encouraged to explore alternative options.

Finding strong substitutes

Cape hake for example, is emerging as a strong substitute for cod and haddock, offering a similar mild flavour and flaky texture, making it an easy transition for both operators and guests.

Turkey: Facing ongoing supply challenges

Not unlike other protein categories, turkey continues to face supply constraints, with no immediate improvement expected.

“We don’t anticipate any near-term relief in turkey supply,” Yeung notes. “In many cases, it makes sense to look at chicken as a more reliable and accessible alternative.”

Given these challenges, operators should plan accordingly and build flexibility into their menus.

Explore plant-based proteins

Many operators are exploring plant-based protein solutions to diversify menus, manage costs, and maintain consistency without compromising on customer expectations. Incorporating high-quality plant-based options can help offset volatility in traditional protein categories while meeting growing demand for flexibility and sustainability on the menu.

Cross-category strategies for success

In today’s environment, a flexible and strategic approach to menu planning is essential. Operators can manage rising costs and supply challenges through a combination of protein blending and substitution.

“Moving away from 100% beef, whether through full substitution or blending, is one of the most effective strategies we’re seeing right now,” says Yeung.

Looking Ahead

The protein market remains complex, with ongoing challenges particularly with beef are expected to persist. However, opportunities exist for operators who are willing to adapt.

By leveraging alternative proteins, embracing labour-saving innovations, and applying strategic menu engineering, operators can successfully navigate cost pressures while continuing to meet guest expectations.

Foodbuy Canada remains committed to supporting operators with market insights, strategic sourcing, and innovative solutions designed to drive value across every menu.