Foodbuy Canada Market Intelligence: Fresh Produce & Protein Update for Operators

As we move into the new year, Canadian operators are facing a mixed market landscape. Fresh produce tariffs have eased, but environmental and supply pressures continue to create unpredictability. Protein markets remain volatile, with certain categories tightening while others present short-term opportunities. 

This update summarizes what clubs, restaurants, and hospitality operators should be watching over the next 3–6 months. 

Fresh Produce: Tariff Relief, but Complexity in Supply 

The Canadian government has officially removed tariffs on fresh produce items. This decision will help lower total landed costs and improve access for buyers, particularly for high-volume staples. However, tariff complications may still arise for products shipped internationally through the United States. 

If the U.S. government applies tariffs to the originating country, such as Latin American shipments routed through U.S. ports, Canadian buyers could see indirect cost impacts. These cases will be supply-chain specific, and operators should expect variability based on product origin, distributor routing, and seasonal availability. 

Overall, the near-term outlook for produce tariffs remains minimal, with the potential for further reductions in coming weeks. But conditions remain fluid, and operators may see localized pricing differences. 

Protein & Seafood Outlook: 3–6 Months 

The protein market continues to behave differently by category. Some items are retreating; others are hitting historic highs, and seasonal demand continues to pull supply away from operators. 

Beef 

Supply remains tight with little sign of relief. Prices are expected to remain elevated and may continue rising well into 2026. 

Operators should consider: 

• Alternate cuts with strong yield 

• Short-term SKU substitutions 

• Menu mix changes that reduce exposure 

Chicken 

Dark meat pricing is climbing due to higher demand and lower availability. Conversely, breast meat pricing is easing, creating a near-term opportunity for cost efficiency and menu flexibility. 

Pork 

Pork cutouts have softened overall, but tight supply is keeping pricing conservative.
Belly prices are starting to drop; however, limited cold storage could slow that decline, creating volatility through early 2026. 

Turkey 

Demand remains high, while availability remains limited due to historic avian flu impacts and elevated production costs. Whole birds continue to be expensive, but turkey parts offer more stability and better value. 

Seafood 

Sanctions on Russian fisheries have driven haddock pricing to historic highs, significantly restricting availability. Cod prices are climbing as well, influenced by low international catch rates and persistent global demand. 

Menu planning, substitutions, and alternate species may be necessary to protect margins. 

Eggs 

After a long period of volatility, processed egg pricing is trending downward.
Broader market softness is projected to continue into early 2026. This represents one of the few areas of relief for operators in the near future. 

What Operators Should Keep in Mind 

Market conditions are not uniform. Weather pressure, government tariffs, international trade sanctions, and seasonal demand patterns continue to influence pricing and availability differently from category to category. 

The most resilient teams are planning now: 

• Adjusting menus to limit exposure to unstable commodities 

• Considering substitutes instead of eliminating items 

• Aligning event calendars with purchasing forecasts 

• Communicating early with distributor partners 

Staying proactive and not reactive is the key to navigating this market.